Roma wins with a dose of luck!
Roma is in a series of 3 games without a loss. But in all three he lost to his opponents in xG . Ie did not deserve these good results.
Here is what the figures from the meetings in question show:
- Roma - Bologna 1-0 (xG: 0.96-2.22)
- Ajax - Roma 1-2 (xG: 3.21-0.71)
- Sassuolo - Roma 2-2 (xG: 2.80-1.58)
As the data shows, even the victory in Amsterdam last week was lucky for the Wolves.
Let us remind you that then at 1-0 for Ajax the Dutch striker Dusan Tadic even missed a penalty.
And if at that moment Ajax had taken the lead with 2 goals in the result, things would have gone in a completely different direction.
There are also rumors that a replacement for Roma coach Paulo Fonseca is being sought.
It will certainly be replaced in the summer, if not earlier. And this news certainly affects footballers in some way.
Another problem for the hosts is their permeable defense.
The good news is that their best player Henrikh Mkhitaryan has already recovered and has a chance to appear in the game.
Ajax has personnel problems in defense!
Ajax were in a 24-match unbeaten streak before Roma's undeserved defeat last week.
As at the weekend, the team quickly returned to victory.
And while in attack Ajax has class and strength, in defense they have some difficulties.
The Daily Blind is out for this match, and Per Schurs may also be absent.
This means that an inexperienced defensive line will operate in front of the inexperienced Kiel Sherpen.
Prediction for Roma - Ajax
Due to the rumors about the coaching post in Roma and the undeserved results lately, I can't trust them to win.
However, I cannot trust Ajax either, due to their problems and insecurity in defense.
Given the result of the first match, the Dutch will have to look for at least 2 goals scored. Because they will hardly rely on a dry network.
But the odds for Over Goals and Goal / Goal are too cut and are not suitable for betting.
That's why I have no choice but to focus on the goal scorer market. And my choice falls on Dusan Tadic.
The striker failed to score from a penalty in the clash last week. But if there is a new one, he will still be the performer.
Besides, he will now want to atone for his guilt. And he will be even more concentrated and furious in the rematch.
Also, the hopes for a goal of the guests will be connected with him due to the absence of his colleagues in attack Haller and Brobi.
Top facts and statistics for the match
- Roma have won 6 of their last 9 games: 6-1-2.
- Roma have won 7 of their last 9 home games: 7-0-2.
- Ajax have lost just 1 of their last 26 games: 22-3-1.
- Ajax have not lost in their last 14 away games: 12-2-0.