Lazio should not be a favorite
Let me tell you, I lost a lot of time to find out some reason why the Lazio team was declared the favorite in this match.
Well, I failed. And she's probably very secretive. Or she's probably insanely stupid.
And I immediately think of one. Which I will share with you a little later in this forecast.
However, I decided to compare a number of other indicators of these two teams.
And the final results of them made me very happy in view of Milan's offer to win.
And so. Let's start.
Milan is the strongest guest in Serie A.
First of all, I completely agree that Milan really do not deserve to be in 2nd place at all.
As according to the ranking, which is determined on the basis of xG data , they should be only 6th.
Yes, but today's opponent should be even 9th.
Lazio is a strong host with 10 wins and only 3 losses. But these results are mainly based on good protection. And in attack they are mediocre.
At the same time, Milan's current position is due to their phenomenal results as a guest.
In 15 visits the Rossoneri have allowed only 1 loss and 1 draw.
They are the second team with the most goals scored and at the same time the fewest goals conceded in away matches.
Lazio and Milan seem equivalent
For me, however, the really important statistics from which we can draw some conclusions are those for the period from 01.03 until now.
In this section, according to common indicators, the two teams are next to each other. Although Milan have played a game more.
However, the differences come again in the host / guest. There both teams have 3 victories.
But Lazio beat Benevento, La Spezia and Crotone at home. And Milan beat Parma, Fiorentina and Verona abroad.
Lazio are 2.90 / 1.24 xGF / xGA at home ( expected goals - scored / admitted).
Milan are 1.28 / 1.09 on the same indicators, but as guests.
The conclusion is that both teams have positive expectations for this match.
Forecast for Lazio - Milan
The big difference between the two teams, in my opinion, comes from a purely game plan. A few points are important here.
First of all, as I have already mentioned before, Lazio do not know how to win against BIG teams this season.
Unlike today's rival Milan.
The Eagles are also a team that is powerless against opponents who are strong in counterattack. And the Rossoneri are just such a team.
The only positive thing for the hosts is the lack of serious staffing problems.
The guests will be without Zlatan Ibrahimovic. But in fact the big loss is not him, but defender Theo Hernandez.
However, a victory for Milan is my clear choice for prediction.
And whether it will be in a successful match or not, it is very difficult to judge.
A clear victory for the Rossoneri then.
Top facts and statistics for the match
- Lazio have won 5 of their last 6 Serie A games: 5-0-1.
- Lazio have won their last 9 home games in Serie A.
- Goal / Goal & Over 2.5 are in the last 4 households of Lazio.
- AC Milan have lost just 1 of their last 5 games: 3-1-1.
- Milan as a guest in Serie A this season: 13-1-1.
- Milan have not lost their last 4 visits to Lazio: 1-3-0.
- There are goals / goals in the last 5 matches of Milan, 4 of them with Over 2.5 .
- Ciro Imobile is Lazio 's top scorer with 17 goals. Zlatan Ibrahimovic has 15 for Milan.
- victory for Milan
- security: 2/10
- exact result: 1-2