Fierce battle for Top 4 in Serie A!
Fans of Serie A could not have expected a more dramatic situation in the fight for the Champions League.
And the distribution of places in the ranking from 2nd to 4th, giving access to it.
Actually 5 teams are involved. As three of them have an equal number of points - Atalanta, Juventus and Milan.
Napoli has 1 point more than them, but has also played one game more. While Lazio is 5 points behind, but has one game less.
Only 4 rounds remain to be played. And two of the teams from the trio I mentioned are now meeting each other.
Whoever loses the match, loses the right to the Champions League.
In a draw, Milan remains in 5th place due to worse performance than Napoli and Juventus.
Thus, this match acquires the character of a playoff.
Juventus vs. AC Milan: comparison
I try to compare the two teams so I can decide on a bet.
First of all, regarding the matches against each other, I would give an advantage to the Juventus team.
As they not only won 3-1 in the first game of the season. But they have also won in their last 9 home games against AC Milan.
In the host / guest comparison, the situation is stalemate.
Because if during the season so far Juve are the second most successful host after the champion Inter. Milan, on the other hand, are the strongest guest.
Who is in better shape?
In the last 10 matches, both teams are hesitant to be candidates for the Champions League. Juventus conceded 2 and AC Milan lost 3.
But another factor is much more important.
For the period in question, the NPxGD indicator ( expected goal difference without penalties and own goals) is definitely +12.98 for the Rossoneri.
While for the Old Lady it is +8.13.
In 2 of its last 3 games, Juventus has definitely outplayed its rivals, as shown by xG data .
At the same time, Milan lost surprisingly on this indicator from Sassuolo.
In my opinion, Juventus are in better shape at the moment.
Regarding the personnel situation in both teams, we can assume that they have no problems.
Here, however, I think the advantage is slightly in favor of Juventus.
On the one hand, Milan continue to rely on almost 40-year-old Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
On the other hand, there was a recent unpleasant incident between fans and goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnaruma.
He did not renew his contract with the Rossoneri. And he is considering Juventus' bigger offer with 2 million euros.
Fans invaded the last training session and warned him not to participate in the match.
After such ultimatums, even if he is at the door, he will hardly feel comfortable.
Forecast for Juventus - AC Milan
It is clear that both teams are under a lot of pressure.
Juventus, however, remain in the game even with a draw.
Milan, on the other hand, can both surpass themselves and present themselves below their capabilities.
Both teams have a choice between two approaches:
- Careful with fear of loss.
- Gambling with an emphasis on attack provided that in defense they are not very convincing.
My choice is that for most of the match it will be the first. As there will be a total reduced playing time due to violations.
That way, if there is no early goal, there won't be much time for the second approach.
I predict a low-scoring match then.
Top facts and statistics for the match
- Juventus have lost just 1 of their last 16 home games: 13-2-1.
- Juventus is in a series of 11 games without a clean sheet .
- There are over 2.5 goals in 7 of Juve's last 8 home games.
- AC Milan have lost just one of their last 7 away games: 4-2-1.
- AC Milan have only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 games.
- Milan is in a series of 11 visits without a win against Juve: 0-2-9.
- Cristiano Ronaldo is Juventus' top scorer with 27 goals. Zlatan Ibrahimovic has 15 for Milan.
- victory for Juventus
- security: 2/10
- exact result: 2-1