Huesca deserves more than Elche!
A real derby at the bottom of La Liga.
I decided to look at this forecast not only purely statistically.
But also to compare the two teams in what they actually showed as a game on the field.
I was amazed by some really impressive xG data .
First the xPTS ranking (expected points). That is, where the teams should have been in view of their game:
- Huesca - 33.45 xPTS
- Christmas tree - 17.51 xPTS
Ie Elche deserves to be in the last position. And Huesca to be 7 places higher in the table.
Huesca plays better than Elche!
My analysis showed me the following.
Here we have conditions of incredibly close real indicators of both teams in all components that you can think of.
But the big difference comes from the fact that as a game Huesca have created many more goal positions.
At the same time, they have allowed far fewer chances to score than their rivals.
This means that it is quite realistic for Huesca to expect an improvement in the results as well.
And with Elche, if not worsening, then at least maximum stagnation at the current level.
I was also very impressed by the fact that Huesca in its last 3 matches outplays all its rivals in terms of xG .
As one of them was Barcelona and away.
In the same period, according to this indicator, Elche is definitely inferior to each of his opponents.
Forecast for Huesca - Elche
In the last 4 matches between these two teams Elche has not won a single game.
Huesca won once during this period. And the other 3 are draws. As this season it was zero.
I have a lot of confidence that Huesca will not lose this match as well.
And because I will choose even if they win it, I will simply halve the amount of the maximum bet.
- victory for Huesca
- security: 2/10
- exact result: 1-0
Top facts and statistics for the match
- Huesca have won just 1 of their last 8 home games: 1-3-4.
- Huesca have won just 1 of their last 9 games against Elche: 1-5-3.
- Elche is in a series of 9 away games without a win: 0-2-7.
- There are goals / goals in 5 of the last 6 matches of Elche.
- Rafa Mir is Huesca 's top scorer with 10 goals. Lucas Boye has 5 for Elche.
- Pablo Insua has more yellow cards (9) than any other Huesca player. Gonzalo Verdu has 8 for Elche.
Last 5 Huesca matches:
Elche's last 5 matches:
|04.04.21||LL||Christmas tree||Betis||1: 1||Р|
|03/21/21||LL||Getafe||Christmas tree||1: 1||Р|
|03/17/21||LL||Seville||Christmas tree||2: 0||З|
|03/13/21||LL||Real M||Christmas tree||2: 1||З|
|03/06/21||LL||Christmas tree||Seville||2: 1||P|
Last 5 direct meetings:
|10/03/20||LL||Christmas tree||Huesca||0: 0|
|04.01.20||LL2||Christmas tree||Huesca||1: 1|
|10/27/19||LL2||Huesca||Christmas tree||2: 0|
|02/25/17||LL2||Christmas tree||Huesca||1: 1|
|09/21/16||LL2||Huesca||Christmas tree||0: 3|