Football/soccer is a widely-betting sport across the world and there are a number of different ways to bet an individual game. Nowadays, predicting the result of football matches is done by both football prediction experts and machine learning algorithms. Of course, both methods have various outcome.
Challenges of predicting the outcome
Both human and computer predictions have their challenges. Humans are emotional and can affect the analysis of teams playing each other and therefore the prediction. However, a computer does not have knowledge of the current mental health of the team. Also, a mismatch between players and coaches might affect the outcome. Football players pay attention to their own performance while coaches manage for peak performance of the team.
However, there is a permanent problem of deciding which attributes are important. Football, like many other sports, has a pattern that may be analysed statistically but may not be predicted precisely. It is enough one lucky hit among hundreds of passes, shots, and dribbles to change the whole outcome of the game. Therefore, it is highly complex and complicated to make a football prediction, both for humans and computers.
Factors to be considered
Several factors affect the result of a football match. When making the football prediction these factors should be considered:
- Home advantage
- Matches with similar opponents
- Power rating & ELO
- Recent form
- Home/away games
- Effect of a cup on league performance
- Injuries and other factors (weather, field, suspensions)
The home advantage is the consistent finding that the home team wins over half of the games played under a balanced home and away schedule. To be more precise, travel and crowd factors could also account for the home advantage effect on a team’s performance. Therefore, we suggest that it makes sense to analyze home and away performance separately.
The average number of goals scored and received in (home or away) matches, the number of points, the current rank and the percentage of possible points obtained for each club enclose a small selection of considered shape indicators.
This part takes into account Head-to-Head match ups. It is a comparison between two teams which helps you to find out who is stronger based on their past match results.
Matches with similar opponents
This might be useful when two sides haven’t met each other before or we don’t have the head-to-head statistics available. If we lack vital information then we can analyze a team’s performance comparing it to equally ranked or rated opponents.
Power Rating & ELO
Power Rating is the average win percentage of the opponents that a certain team has beaten. A team with wins over strong opponents (teams with higher win percentage) has a higher power rating than a team with the exact same record, but with wins over weaker opponents (teams with lower win percentages).
Each team can be assigned an ELO rating as a measure of the team’s current strength based on the results of a set of past matches. There are many software and services providing the ELO calculations that help a lot in predicting the outcome of a match.
One of the most common methods of making football prediction is by finding the teams with the best recent form and betting on them to win. In a similar way, you can also find the teams with the worst recent form. However, this often-applied strategy is not always useful as a single indicator for a team’s performance.
Almost every football league has certain teams that can perform better either at home or away. Punters should know if these effects are real and consistent can be combined with other data in the process.
Effect of a cup on league performance
Playing multiple games with a short recovery time between matches influences on physical activity of a team. Top teams often participate in many national and international cups and their fatigue should be considered before placing any bet.
Injuries and other factors
Injuries of the individual, usually key players, have an influence on the performance of the entire team. However, such information is subjective in nature and should not be considered in statistical forecasting. Furthermore, a bad-weather condition in football can cause problems, especially in passing the ball. Also, rough pitch or artificial turf field may possess an advantage over the visiting teams that usually play on a different surface.
The house doesn’t beat the player.
It just gives him the opportunity
to beat himself.
Experienced punter and computer together can gather, process and analyze all these information and calculations. Predicting the outcome of a football game is a complex process. Having such information and method is a must for the serious bettor and a vital tool for making profits. While there are numerous paid services available on the internet, our free betting tips can offer an even bigger edge for bettors. Therefore, save your time and let us do the hard work for you.