Everton is a weak host!
Everton are undoubtedly having a good season. And they are eligible for Euro tournaments. As they are exactly on the 7th position in the ranking.
A rapid dissection of their presentation before and at this time, however, leads to a slight confusion.
First of all, there is a huge dissonance in their results at home and abroad in the Premier League.
On the one hand, they are the 5th weakest host with 6 of 12 games lost. On the other hand, they are the 4th strongest guest.
This feature cannot be explained by, for example, a difference in the quality of the opponents we have met so far.
If they lose at home to both Manchester teams are acceptable. So how do we take losses from Fulham or Newcastle with 0-2?
In short, Everton are not a home betting team at all. And I will never afford it.
Southampton is in crisis!
Now, however, Everton have a guest who is not only out of shape. But it is also traditionally their most comfortable visiting team.
The Saints have not won in 15 consecutive away games from the English Premier League at this stadium.
In addition, they are without a win in their last 8 championship matches. As many as 7 of them are losses.
Southampton have conceded 27 goals in their visits. Which is the weakest defense for a visiting team.
Forecast for Everton - Southampton
First of all, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that Everton have so far scored 37 goals at 32.06 xG . That is almost 5 goals above expectations.
According to this indicator, it turns out that they are the 6th most effective team in the realization of their positions.
And here comes another surprise. Southampton with 5.08 goals above expectations are the 3rd most effective team.
These abilities of both teams, combined with the fact that the Saints have the most permeable defense for a guest team, give me reason to believe that it is more likely to have at least 3 goals in this match.
And now comes the biggest surprise for my prediction. But of course, and with good reason.
Everton currently have a -3 goal difference as hosts. But on xG it is -4.22. Ie a decrease in this indicator is expected soon.
At the same time, Southampton as a guest have a -13 goal difference. And on xG it is -7.76. Therefore, a significant improvement is expected.
Everton, Sheffield and Man City visit the Saints in turn.
I agree that they are very likely to beat Chef Yun by a margin, but not a big one.
Therefore, success with 1 goal difference here meets the expectations for both Everton and Southampton.
It will probably be a successful match. But the victory for the Saints is appreciated well enough.
I play against all the trends here. Let's see.
- victory for Everton
- security: 4/10
- exact result: 1-0
Top facts and statistics for the match
- Everton have not won in their last 5 home games: 0-2-3.
- At home, Everton have not lost to Southampton in 16 games: 10-6-0.
- Southampton have 8 games without a win in the league, with 7 losses.
- Southampton are in a series of 4 losses as a guest in the Premier League.
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin is Everton 's top scorer with 13 goals. Danny Ings has 8 for Southampton.
- Abdullaye Dukure has more yellow cards (6) than any other Everton player. Oriol Romeu is 6 for Southampton.
Everton's last 5 games:
|02/17/21||PL||Everton||Man City||1: 3||З|
|02/06/21||PL||Man United||Everton||3: 3||Р|
Last 5 Southampton games:
Last 5 direct meetings: