Betting Systems [The Complete Guide]

Here we will look at the different strategies, progressive, regressive, martingale, hedging and arbitrage.

You will learn everything you need to know about sports betting systems, what they consist of, how they originated and theories about how they work. 

We will also look at whether they really work, whether they are legal and whether they can ban you from betting if you use them.

Betting systems are based on mathematical probabilities to provide you with protection against losses. But the problem is that this is not entirely true.

The laws of mathematics and physics state that data often does not fit within rules and a series of adverse results can often occur.

If you have an unlimited amount of betting money when the theory is valid, you will never experience a loss if you use a betting system. Virtually no one has an unlimited amount of money.

 

Betting systems

* The hyperlink of each name will take you to the description of the given betting system.

The system	Also known as	Positive / negative progression
Arbitration	Arbing	There is no
Handicap	Normalizing	There is no
Hedging	Mitigation	There is no
Martingale	Double in 'Up	Negative
Mini Martingale	-	Negative
Grand Martingale	-	Negative
Anti-Martingale	Reverse Martingale	Positive
Labuscher	Split-Martingale / Cancellation	Negative
Reverse Labouchere	Reverse cancellation	Positive
D'Alembert	-	Negative
Contra D'Alembert	Reverse D'Alembert	Positive
The ascetic	-	Positive
Fibonacci	-	Negative
Passwords	Parlay	Positive
System 1 3 2 6	-	Positive
Oscar Grind	-	Positive
Patrick's system	-	Both
Card counting	-	There is no

 

Do betting systems have an effect?

We definitely don't think that by using betting systems you will have a sure way to win.

True, many have won large sums by using them, but many more players have found themselves on the unpleasant side of the odds and lost.

In short, betting systems have no effect unless you use fraud, which is illegal and not very fun for other bettors.

Look at it this way: bookmakers and casinos are acclaimed statisticians, with bright lights and tempting opportunities - everything they offer has some limits to profits.

Operators invest huge sums to find systemic bettors, and they are well aware of all sorts of tricks.

At best, you will win in the short term, but in the end, you will either lose according to the laws of probability, or the operator will close your account.

 

Many bettors will assure you that betting systems have an effect by quoting either well-known systems or systems created by them.

This means one of the following three options:

First, they cheat, so it is more correct to call their system not a betting system, but a cheating system.

Second, so far they have been lucky, but at some point, they will lose.

Third, they lie, covering up their losses.

 

Are cheating betting systems equivalent?

This is a false statement. A betting system simply uses the statistical probability of a series of events happening.

In theory, if you have an unlimited amount in your account, you can use these probabilities to earn in a completely legal way.

Even card counting is generally legal as it is based on statistical factors.

If you use external devices to help your game, you are entering the realm of the illegal, and this is against the laws of the game.

 

Can you be banned from betting if you use a betting system?

We have already mentioned that betting systems such as card counting are not illegal. But most bookmakers and casinos do not approve of them. They are against this practice and are trying to prevent it.

After all, operators have a private business and can easily ban you from betting if they think you are using any systems.

Interestingly, history remembers cases in which operators were forbidden to exclude players using betting systems.

For example, in Atlantic City, USA in 1979, the Supreme Court's decision set a precedent for the legal use of card counting.

Player Ken Uston condemned a casino in the city, arguing that card counting was a skill and that casinos were not allowed to exclude players just because they had the skills. So he won the case.

But casinos acted cleverly and simply increased the number of countermeasures they used against skilled players.

These measures included both very fast dealers and sophisticated computer systems for identifying suspicious players.

Online bookmakers have the right to close a player's account if they believe that he is trying to use betting systems.

In such cases, players do not have much choice, but those who believe they have been subjected to unfair discrimination can lodge complaints.

 

What is a bettor's mistake?

It is a common and misconception that if an event happens more often than the probability suggests, it will happen less often in the future. But this is completely wrong.

If you toss a coin and you fall 5 times in a row, for the sixth time the chance of hedgehogs is still 50:50, regardless of the previous results.

In a game or scenario in which the events are independent of each other, they are not related, the previous result has no effect on the next.

The bettor's mistake is the usual cause of player losses.

 

What is House Edge?

This is the percentage of winnings set in a game or event by the bookmaker or casino.

In the next section, we will look at the systems used for odd money betting.

 Roulette is the most common example of this. The problem is that in the real world, in commercial betting, even betting does not exist.

For example, the zero of the roulette wheel is not black or red, odd or even, which means that seemingly "equivalent" betting can never be equivalent.

There is a 1/37 chance that none of the results will fall.

American roulette is even worse: it also has a double-zero sector, which means that the chance of none of the results falling is 2/38.

 

Types of sports betting systems

The systems described below, such as the Martingale system, are best used for even-numbered bets. They can be successfully used for sports betting at equal odds, but are generally more suitable for games with fixed odds. Here we will look at some betting systems that are more commonly used in sports betting.

 

Arbitrage betting

This bet uses the fact that individual bookmakers define their own odds lines and therefore there is a natural variation on the market.

This is also known by the colloquial term arbitration.

For example, if Liverpool plays with Manchester United, bookmakers give different odds on the market, no draw - bet, and one bookmaker gives 6/5 (2.20 in decimal value) to Liverpool and another gives 6/5 to Manchester United.

If you bet BGN 100 on both lines at both bookmakers, you are guaranteed to win BGN 20 if one team wins, and if the result is a draw, you will get your bet back, as this is a draw no bet. This is a bet that is not a loser.

This system can be used theoretically in any market where the results are offered differentially between bookmakers. Be careful when applying it.

First, if the bookmaker catches you, it will forbid you to bet, but it will also disseminate the information and a number of operators will also forbid you to bet with them.

Second, most of these arbitrage bets have small ranges, which means that you will have to bet large amounts, which is suspicious in itself.

Finally, the different terms and conditions of different bookmakers can get you into big trouble.

What will happen if one bookmaker cancels the bet according to its terms, but the other bookmaker does not cancel it?

In today's world of online betting, this can bring you profits in the short term, but they will quickly expose you.

This practice is not exactly illegal, but very few operators will tolerate it. In general, they will reduce your betting limits to such a low level that arbitrage will become useless.

 

Handicap

Handicap gives an advantage or no advantage to a result to equalize the chances of winning.

In sports betting, this is usually done to normalize the odds in cases where there is a clear favourite.

Handicap betting is a popular form used in arbitrage betting.

For example, if one bookmaker offers a 3-point advantage to Team A in a rugby match and another bookmaker offers a 3-point advantage to Team B in the same match, supporting both results means that you can actually win with both bets if one of the teams won by 2 points or less.

If one of the teams wins with 3 or more points, you will still win at least one bet.

 

Hedging

From this term came the verb " hedging " of bets.

This pledge is more common in investment markets and the principle is to compensate for potential losses or gains through a second investment or pledge.

With modern live betting, this is a great betting option. We will give an example. You are betting that Everton will beat Arsenal in a 'draw no bet' at odds of 2/1, with a bet of BGN 100, which potentially brings a profit of BGN 200.

Everton win 1-0; now the odds that Arsenal will beat Everton in 'draw no bet' are also 2/1, so you can hedge your bet and bet BGN 100 on this line. Whatever the result of the match, you will win BGN 100.

Hedging is very often used on betting exchanges, with operators such as Betfair.

In essence, both backing and laying at a good price will always provide a profit. But beware of commissions, you must keep them in mind.

 

Types of casino betting systems

 

Even betting systems

In principle, all equal betting systems fall into either the progressive category or the negative progression.

In the next section, we will look at the systems actually used.

Whatever they are, they will help you earn in the short term at best, but we cannot guarantee that they will provide you with endless profits.

Positive progression systems

The basic concept with these systems is to increase your bet when you win. They are very popular in casino games such as roulette.

So, you will increase your bet every time you win, but you will decrease it when you lose - this is to minimize losses.

Here is an example: you play roulette and bet in red with an initial bet of BGN 10.

Each time you win, you will add another BGN 10 to your bet, and each time you lose, you will reduce your bet by BGN 10.

If you happen to win 4 times in a row, your profit will be BGN 100, 10 in the first time, 20 in the second, 30 in the third, 40 in the fourth time, etc.

If you then lose the fifth time you bet BGN 50, you will still have a profit of BGN 50.

And if you lose 4 times in a row, your bet will always be BGN 10, so you will only lose BGN 40.

This strategy can maximize your profits if you do not have a period of consecutive profits, but it does not change the chances of gains and losses.

The only advantage of it is that it can keep your losses low during periods of successive losses.

Negative progression betting systems

In essence, this is the opposite of positive progression. With this strategy, you increase your bets when you lose; in theory, it is believed that you will eventually win and make up for all the losses.

The problem with this strategy is that there is no limit to the number of times you can lose, but is the amount available in your account enough to withstand a long series of losses if you choose this system?

Let's say you start with a bet of BGN 10 and bet on black.

Every time you lose, you double your bet. For example, if you lose 7 times in a row, it would cost you 1270 BGN (obtained by the sum of losses: 10 + 20 + 40 + 80 + 160 + 320 + 640), and to bet for the eighth time, you must bet the amount of 1280 BGN, and for this, you will need to have BGN 2680 available in your account.

But even if you win the eighth time, you will only win BGN 10.

You can win and make profits by betting negatively, but in the end, luck will betray you.

If you have BGN 3,000 in your account, then 8 losses will spend this amount - see the example above. The probability of losing 8 times, assuming that the chances were exactly equal (and this is not the case), would be 256/1.

This may seem like a high probability, but on a roulette table with a rotation every 3 minutes, this would happen on average every 12.75 hours.

Now think about how many roulette tables there are in the world (online and in the real world) and this will give you some idea of ​​the frequency of such losses.

So if you choose this system, you take the risk yourself.

 

The Martingale system

This is probably the most famous and best-known betting system - the Martingale system with a negative progression.

It originated in France in the 18th century, although there is evidence that its name may have originated with Henry Martingale, owner of an English casino during the same period, and is said to have helped its customers double their bets. He did not invent the system but was probably its first promoter.

As mentioned above, the system is based on increasing your bet after each loss.

The earliest and most common application of the system is in situations where the chances are equal or as close as possible to equal.

The usual application of this system is when betting red or black on roulette.

Here, in fact, the chances are 48.6% for roulette with one zero (the British version of roulette) and 47.4% for roulette with two zeros (American roulette).

The Martingale system would be invincible if the amount in your account was infinitely large, but this does not happen in practice.

With a continuous doubling of the bet after a series of losses, a dizzyingly high amount can be reached very quickly.

Even if you start with a bet of BGN 1, after 11 losing bets you will need the huge amount of BGN 2048 just to get that BGN 1 back (here is the series of losses - 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, BGN 2048).

If you lose the 12th bet, the total amount of your losses will be 4095 leva.

Although the risk of losing 12 consecutive bets is low - 2048/1, believe us, this can really happen.

The other problem arises even if you have a huge amount in your account - until you reach the 12th bet on this system, the casino, bookmaker, machine or online game will throw you out anyway - either because they noticed you are using the system or because they want to bets wisely, and your method will show that there is a problem in this regard.

 

Mini Martingale

This is an application of the Martingale system, in which you limit the number of times you are willing to double.

This can reduce the number of huge bets you risk betting on, but it will also increase the number of loss periods and therefore the amount of losses.

This system would only work if you have a very long period of consecutive winnings, and this involves relying only on luck.

 

Grand Martingale

This version of the Martingale system is designed to increase your winnings when you really win.

The problem with the Martingale system is that you will only get your starting bet back, even if you started with BGN 1 and had 11 consecutive losses by betting 2048 on the 12th bet.

That's why the Grand Martingale system adds an extra unit to your bet after each loss. That way, when you really win, you'll win more than your main bet. But this does not save you from the main problem and in the end, you will lose again.

 

Anti-Martingale

This system is sometimes called the reverse Martingale. With it, you double every time you win, so it's now a positive progression betting system.

In theory, this is a safer way than the original Martingale system, but in any case, you will need a period of consecutive winnings to win, but only one loss is enough, and you will return to your starting bet.

 

Labuscher / Split-Martingale

The Labouchere betting system, also known as split-Martingale, or cancellation system, allows players to go through a series of numbers that will ultimately be equivalent to winning when betting on even odds.

It is popular for betting red or black on roulette and for betting on even and odd.

The player starts by selecting a list of numbers that determine the amount he wants to win.

Then cross out in the list the numbers that are realized.

For example, in an elementary series of numbers - 1, 2, 3 and 4, the player expects a profit of 1 + 2-3 + 4 = 10 BGN.

The system begins by betting the sum of the largest and smallest numbers on the list; in our example, this is 1 + 4 = 5 levs.

If the bet wins, the player strikes out the largest and smallest number and bets the sum of the new largest and smallest numbers - 2 + 3 = 5.

If he wins again, he crosses out these two numbers and has won 5 + 5 = BGN 10, and this is the initial amount of money he wanted to win.

If the player loses his first bet, the amount of the loss is added to the list.

Thus, the list includes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Therefore, the next bet will be 1 + 5 = 6.

If your bet loses again, you will add 6 to the list, and the next bet will be 1 + 6 = 7, and so on.

This system originated in the 18th century and was conceived by a passionate roulette player, the English aristocrat Henry Labuscher.

It is just as vulnerable as any other and requires a large amount in your account and high betting limits to be effective.

 

Reverse Labouchere

This is just a version of the above system with a positive progression. It only adds a number to the list if you win.

You continue to bet the sum of the first and last number in the system.

But when you lose, you cross out the top and bottom numbers on the list.

It relies on absorbing a large number of small losses, in the hope that your profits will exceed the amount of losses.

The big question is when to stop the progression. In the short term, it can work, but in the long run, you will lose.

 

D'Alembert system

It was invented by a real person, the French mathematician Jean-Baptiste le Rond D'Alembert.

The system is based on the acceptance of balance, with winning bets ultimately equal to losing bets.

The basic concept is to add a chip after a losing bet and remove a chip after a winning bet.

This means that winning bets will always be more than losing bets.

This system is not invulnerable to the usual problems - to run out of money in your account or to reach the limits of the bank.

The mini-D'Alembert system limits the number of bets in a series but is no more successful than the mini-Martingale. It can be more successful if applied to opposing bets.

 

Contra D'Alembert system

This is the opposite of the D'Alembert system.

With it, you remove a chip every time you lose and add a chip every time you win.

It can better help you protect the amount in your account, because with a long series of losses you reduce your bet at least every time. But in the end, it is no more successful than its counterpart.

 

The Ascot system

This is another even betting system based on a list of numbers, usually 7 to 11 in number.

Here is a standard series: 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20 and 30; in this case, the player will bet the average number first - 8.

If the bet wins, the next bet will be the next highest number in the list - 13.

If it wins, the next bet will be 20, then 30. Then the series ends and you stop betting.

Conversely, if you lose the first bet, you will bet the next number down in the series - 5, then 3, and finally 2.

In a series of losses 2 becomes the last bet and then you stop betting.

This system is good in the sense that it can stop unwise losses, but in the long run, you will always lose.

 

Fibonacci system

Leonardo Bonachi was an Italian mathematician who lived in the 13th century and was known as Fibonacci.

In 1202, he introduced the centuries-old system of Indo-Arabic numbers into Europe in his famous book, Liber Abaci, in which he proposed a series of numbers that became known as the Fibonacci series.

This series is based on the rule that the next number is always the sum of the previous two numbers.

By the 13th the series is 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377. This series is observed in nature in many biological systems, during the development of embryos. , in the structure of plant flowers, etc.

When betting, the series refers to the amount of the bet.

Each time you win, you reduce your bet to the previous level.

This system is relatively low risk compared to other systems and works well when applied, for example, in partnership with roulette or carp.

It is also often used by traders in stock markets.

 

Passwords or Parlay System

This system is a positive progression, which is the opposite of the Martingale system, but with restrictions on maximum bets.

First select an initial bet between 20 and 50 times the amount in your account, for example, BGN 10.

For the first bet, bet one unit of bet, ie. BGN 10, and if you lose, keep the same bet, and if you win, double your bet to BGN 20.

Each time you lose, reduce your bet by one, and if you win, double your bet.

The limit applies if you win three times in a row - then you stop increasing the bet and return to the original bet of BGN 10.

This system allows you to take advantage of short periods of winnings that happen more often, in the hope that you will not lose too much.

Ideally, you will double three times, collect the winnings and start the system again.

 

System 1 3 2 6

This system is similar to the Parlay system. It is also based on the increase in bets after winning.

First, determine the bet unit and the amount you want to win - this is usually between 20 and 50 times your bet.

Bet one unit as the first bet - say BGN 10, and then stick to the system 1, 3, 2, 6 for consecutive winnings.

Each time you lose or win 4 bets in a row, the series must start all over again.

When using the 1 3 2 6 system there are only 4 possible results.

Loss of the first bet = loss of 1 unit, the profit of the first and loss of the second = loss of 2 units, the profit of 2 bets and loss of the third = profit of 2 units, the profit of 3 bets and loss of the fourth = even, and finally profit on all four bets = profit on 12 units.

 

Oscar Grind system

This is probably the system with the lowest risk, but also with the lowest profits. It is based on the simple principle of increasing your bet by one unit after each win and not changing the amount of the bet after a loss.

The problem is that whether you win or lose, you will never lose or win more than one unit in a series of bets.

For example, if the bet unit is BGN 2, you lose 3 times in a row and lose a total of BGN 6.

In the fourth bet you win, your loss is reduced to BGN 4, so you add one unit, BGN 2, to your next bet, and you call.

For the sixth bet, you return to a bet of one unit, BGN 2, etc.

 

Patrick's system

This is a more modern betting system named after a professional player, John Patrick, who describes it in his book.

It uses both positive and negative progression. With it, you start with a bet that is at least double the minimum for the table.

Each time you win, you reduce the bet to half the amount of the winning bet.

For example, if you bet BGN 20 and win, your next bet will be BGN 10. If you win again, you will return to your original bet unit, BGN 20, and then increase your bet unit to an amount equal to the minimum for the table. This is repeated.

For example, if you have 6 consecutive winnings with a minimum table weight of BGN 10, you will get the following: 20, 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50, and your winnings will be BGN 170. The system offers to stop after 4 consecutive losses, but like most other systems, it is just as vulnerable to luck, and besides, will you be able to stop after 4 losses?

 

Card counting

Let's pay special attention to this system. It is something that can actually work and bring you profits.

But this is not a betting system, but rather a special skill.

There are many forms of card counting, and in all types of games that do not use cards, many similar systems are used.

The principle is based on predicting statistical probabilities in games in which the results are related.

In card games, for example, there are a number of cards in a deck, which means that you can calculate in real-time the probability of the value of the next card based on the cards already shown.

If you can do this successfully, you can overcome the advantage of the casino and turn the odds in your favour.

There is nothing illegal in this system, but as long as you do not use devices or partners for it.

In practice, you are unlikely to get caught in a long game, as operators have invested literally billions to prevent the counting of cards.

In addition, you must have very good mathematical abilities and long practice, as well as self-discipline to improve this skill.

Card counting detection devices

Casinos and operators can easily determine who is applying card counting - by monitoring. They can establish this practice in a physical way, through pit bosses, as well as through video surveillance known as 'eye in the sky'.

The surveillance is of such good quality that the automatic face recognition software can recognize you as soon as you enter, even before you sit at the table.

Operators are usually looking for some common signs, such as large bets and entries, large changes in bet amounts, a game with a very small number of hands, movement between tables, and a multi-hand game.

Countering card counting

As this practice is not strictly illegal, casinos use a number of countermeasures to reduce it.

These can include disturbing the player, talking to him to distract him, reducing his concentration, which is very necessary.

Increasing the number of shuffles, using dealers who distribute quickly, facial recognition software, betting counting and tracking software and more. are such countermeasures.