Undoubtedly, the two most titled teams from these first eight matches meet at the Estadio Camp Nou - Barcelona, which won the trophy five times, welcomes the winners of six titles in the Bayern Munich Champions League. In this group E rivals of these two teams favorites to qualify for the eliminations are Benfica and Dynamo Kiev.
Barcelona again led by Ronald Koeman, but without its leader in the last 17 years Lionel Messi, begins the season with the attitude of winning more success in the two lost competitions - in La Liga outplayed in the last two championships by Madrid's Pella and Atletico and in this tournament stopped convincingly in the 1/16 finals of PSG. Only the prize won in the Copa del Rey must be defended. In the first three rounds, the Catalans achieved two successes on this field with 4: 2 over Real Sociedad and 2: 1 over Getafe, and between them they ended in a draw - 1: 1 in Bilbao against Athletic. Today, however, the match will be of a completely different nature, against a very strong and balanced guest, ready to punish even the smallest mistakes, absent are a lot of important players - Aguero, Dembele, Fati, Braithwaite, Dest, Wage and Roberto are with various injuries.
Bayern Munich have no problems in the Bundesliga for a long time with nine consecutive titles, but lost the other two races - the German Cup and the particularly painful relegation as "Barca" from PSG, but in the quarterfinals after exchanged victories - 2: 3 in Munich and 1: 0 in Paris. Now the rules have changed, but when it comes to eliminations, who will benefit. The Bavarians won the Super Cup of the country by winning 3: 1 at home Dortmund, after the draw with "Gladbach" at home - 1: 1, won a heart attack with 3: 2 over Czholn at home and very convincingly against the latter from last season RB Leipzig as a guest with 4: 1. This shows that Julian Nagelsman, who replaced Hansi Flick at the beginning of the season, gets into things very quickly, but with such performers it is not very difficult for him. Today will be a serious dispute, but his team is placed in the role of favorite. Tolisso is injured and Gnabri's condition is questionable.
There are a lot of direct matches - in 1996 in LE in the semifinals - 2: 2 in Munich and the victory of the "Bavarians" with 2: 1 on this field and in the final is Bayern. In 1998 in the Champions League two successes of the Germans with 1: 0 at home and with 2: 1 as guests. In 2009 in the 1/4 in the Champions League - 4: 0 for Barcelona at the Camp Nou and 1: 1 at the Allianz Arena and ahead are the Spaniards. In the semifinals in 2013 - two very convincing victories for the "Bavarian Giant" - 4: 0 at home and 3: 0 in Barcelona. Again in the semifinals in 2018, Barça eliminated the opponent after 3: 0 at the Camp Nou and 2: 3 outside, but crashed in 2020 in the 1.4 final with 2: 8 on neutral ground of Estadio da Luz in Lisbon. Today with just under 2/1, the favorites are the guests, the tips are for over 2.5 goals, 2 goals, goal / goal and 1X. In our opinion, what happened to both teams in their last 4 of 5 matches, goals in both nets is a reasonable option. Goal / goal prediction and great emotions with the Champions League matches for everyone!
Barcelona without Messi: how are you doing?
This is the first meeting between these two teams after the quarter-finals of the Champions League in 2019/20 in Lisbon.
Then the second heaviest loss in the history of the Catalans was recorded with 2-8. After a 0-6 from Espanyol far in the past.
Barcelona will be without Leo Messi in this tournament for the first time. So far, they are doing well with 9 wins and 1 draw.
Curiously, they had no problem scoring at least one goal in every Champions League match played without him.
But they didn't do it only once. And in case of a loss at home exactly from Bayern Munich with 0-3.
Bayern Munich is the favorite: why?
Another interesting statistic for me is that Barcelona have not lost their first match of the group stage of the Champions League in 22 seasons. And Bayern - from 17.
And we don't need to be any experts to guess that these two teams will determine the first two places in the group.
Their meetings with Benfica and Dynamo Kyiv will be only for points and goal difference.
However, for Barcelona to be an outsider at home, and only because of the statistics I have listed, it seems ridiculous to me.
At least the postponed match of the Catalans against Sevilla is certainly a sign of quite serious intentions.
On the other hand, Thomas Mueller in plain text said that now without Messi Barça is a mystery to them.
And his absence meant another more defensive player.
Barcelona has plenty of reason to be a more motivated team. And he doesn't have a great chance of losing this match.
Referee of the match: does he give cards?
The referee of the match will be the Englishman Michael Oliver. He refereed more than one match for both teams.
Although it is difficult to determine its profile, there is one very characteristic feature of it.
If the Premier League allows a freer game. And it marks, on average, just over 50% of martial arts as violations.
Internationally, this percentage exceeds 80.
This means that on the one hand it breaks the game a lot. And leaves little playing time.
On the other hand, with so many fouls played, some of them turn into yellow cards.
He raises an average of 3 per game.
So if we add more than 0 or even more than 1 card to the bet, it is quite likely that we have made the right choice.
Forecast for Barcelona - Bayern
In the end, my prediction is that Barcelona will not lose to Bayern Munich. And there will be at least 2 cards in the match.
The size of my two-component bet cannot be larger than average.
Top facts and statistics for the match
- Barcelona have won 7 of their last 9 games: 7-1-1.
- Barcelona have scored in each of their last 11 games.
- He has over 2.5 goals in 7 of Barcelona's last 8 games.
- Bayern is in a series of 5 consecutive victories.
- Bayern have scored 3+ goals in each of their last 5 games.
- There are over 3.5 goals in the last 5 matches of Bayern.
- Bayern have won 5 of their last 6 matches with Barcelona : 5-0-1.
- He has over 2.5 goals in 5 of the last 6 matches between the two teams.