This Tuesday, February 23, 2021, Atlético Madrid welcomes Chelsea for a match counting for the round of 16 first leg of the 2020-2021 edition of the Champions League. This meeting will take place in Bucharest (Romania) and the kick-off will be at 9:00 p.m. During the group stage, Atlético Madrid finished 2nd in Group A with 9 points while Chelsea finished 1st in Group E with 14 units.
In this Champions League match, which will be played on neutral ground in Bucharest, I decided to bet on the most anticipated events in it.
Prediction: Few goals
When two such strong defensive teams meet, what comes to your mind first?
To me personally, two things.
In the first place is, of course, low performance. But immediately the associated unpredictability for the final outcome.
If you remember this obligatory interconnectedness from me, you will always be grateful to me when you bet in the future.
Why is that, you ask? Well, very simple.
The more goals are expected to solve a match, the more likely it is to get the so-called. "Expected winner".
And vice versa. When the match will be decided only with a goal or two, then the chance for the so-called The "surprise result" is much greater.
One random goal from a long distance and the favorite is defeated.
So in this line of thought here I miss the bet for the ultimate winner immediately.
Atletico and Chelsea are top in defense!
Thomas Tuchel's team after only 7 games under his leadership conceded only 2 goals in this period.
And for the defense built by Diego Simeone, I don't know if I should even remind him that he is one of the two strongest.
And not only in terms of goals conceded, but also, more importantly, in terms of admissions in general for the rivals.
At the same time, Chelsea in their last match with the Saints have only 1.38 xG .
And Southampton, you will agree, are far from defending today's rival of the Blues - Atletico Madrid.
Two ultra defensive teams without the need for heroism in attack. Under 2 goals then is my prediction.
Forecast: Lots of cardboard
And now attention.
Personally, I was very surprised to find that Atletico Madrid are the 3rd roughest team in La Liga. After the undisputed leaders Getafe and Celta.
Now a German spy team has been sent for the match for a criminal action led by Felix Brich.
He gives an average of 3.24 cards per game this season. And a total of 24 yellow and 2 red for playing 5 matches of the Champions League.
I give him a chance after the obligatory 1 yellow and for the 2nd team in order to respect, to add out of habit and at least 1 more because of spectators like me.
I like these two probabilities and combine them into a common prediction.
Our Atlético Madrid Chelsea Prediction
More than 3 years after their last confrontation, Atlético Madrid and Chelsea find themselves at the stage of the knockout stages of the Champions League. While the Colchoneros remain in 2 games without a win in La Liga, the Madrid team will face a Chelsea formation undefeated in 8 games. For our prediction, we bet on a draw. Less players can obviously cover themselves with a double chance.
Top facts and statistics for the match
- Atletico have lost just 1 of their last 8 games: 5-2-1.
- He has scored in 6 of Atletico's last 7 games.
- Chelsea have not lost in their last 8 games: 6-2-0.
- Chelsea have recorded 5 clean sheets in their last 7 games.
- In the past, Atlético Madrid and Chelsea have faced each other 7 times since 2009: 2 wins for Atlético Madrid, 3 draws and 2 wins for Chelsea. The last match between the two teams ended in a draw (1-1) on December 5, 2017 in the Champions League.
- In 3 confrontations "at home", Atlético Madrid has never won against Chelsea (2 draws and 1 defeat).
- In their respective leagues, Atlético Madrid lost at home to Levante in the Spanish La Liga and Chelsea went to a draw at Southampton in the English Premier League.
- Atlético Madrid's last "home" loss in the Champions League dates back to September 27, 2017 and it was against ... Chelsea. Since that date, the Colchoneros remain on a series of 13 games without defeat in C1.
- Olivier Giroud, author of 5 goals since the start of the competition, will be one of the players to watch for Chelsea.
Last 5 Atletico Madrid matches:
Chelsea's last 5 games:
Last 5 direct meetings: