This Wednesday February 24, 2021, Atalanta Bergamo welcomes Real Madrid for a match counting for the round of 16 first leg of the 2020-2021 edition of the Champions League. This match will take place at the Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo (Italy) and kick off will be at 9:00 p.m. During the group stage, Atalanta finished in 2nd place in group D with 11 points and Real Madrid finished leader in group B with 10 units.
Atalanta is a serious rival!
Atalanta is a top Italian team, which in recent years has succeeded in everything and on all fronts.
They reached the quarter-finals of the Champions League in its last edition. Where they were eliminated by PSG, the future finalist, with 2 late goals.
Now they are in the final for the Italian Cup, in the 4th position in Serie A and in this 1/16 final for the Champions League.
Usually, but of course rightly, the name Atalanta is associated with offensive power.
Last season they were the most productive team in Europe from the top championships.
They are also very effective in the current campaign.
For example, statistics show that in 9 of their last 11 households they have scored at least 3 goals.
However, another thing that stands out is the 11 hits in their last 5 households.
According to statistics, the conclusion is that Atalanta are a very strong offensive and unstable defensive team.
It is on this basis that the bookmaker's expectations for the match are formed.
But we have the advantage of starting our reasoning where the statistics end.
And we will focus on them after looking at the statistics for Real Madrid.
Real Madrid has staffing problems!
First of all, let's try to list the absences of the White Ballet team.
Sergio Ramos, Karim Benzema, Carvajal, Eden Hazard, Marcelo, Rodrigo, Valverde, Odriosola, Eder Miliato.
Nevertheless, they have won their last 4 La Liga matches.
If our analysis stops here, it seems as if the opinion is imposed that this match should be of the 1X + type, the obligatory Over 2.5 goals.
Nothing of the kind.
First, we must keep in mind that Real Madrid have much more experience in the Champions League.
And besides, for them the concept of B team does not exist.
A top club from Spain cannot be an outsider against the 4th in Italy.
In short, no final winner of the match can be expected.
Or at least not with the degree of certainty required by the odds offered to make it worthwhile.
Prediction for Atalanta - Real Madrid
We are heading to the hit market. Where I am happy to find a good odds for less than 3 goals.
I have, of course, enough reasons to make just such a bet.
Atalanta is already a much more pragmatic team. Who knows how to play for a result when necessary.
See, for example, in the group phase. Their first three games were with over 3 goals or whatever was expected.
However, a completely different team is away to Liverpool and Ajax. Strong defense in them and not a single goal conceded.
In their last 3 matches in the group they have a score of 0.60 xGA in them. Ie have allowed too few serious situations at their door.
Against the top teams in Italy they also play very solidly in defense. For example, 1-1 with Inter and Milan.
For Real Madrid, I can remind you that their championship title last season was won with economic victories.
But on the basis of solid protection.
This trend continues with them even now.
Gasparini is aware that he should not go crazy in goals in the first match against such an opponent.
Therefore, I am sure that Atalanta will have a very careful approach to the meeting.
And Real Madrid will aim to prevent a goal as long as possible in the match.
Naked or a maximum of two or even none, I will not be surprised at all.
But it will be a surprise for the bookmaker and millions of football fans.
The problem is theirs. And I choose this prediction for a few goals.
I offer it with an average bet, fully meeting the required 50% probability that the event will happen.
Our Prediction Atalanta - Real Madrid
Six months after reaching Final 8 of the Champions League, Atalanta returns to the knockout phase of C1 with a confrontation against Real Madrid. The Bergamo club, undefeated for 5 meetings, will have to expect a complicated meeting against the Merengue before the return match scheduled for Madrid on March 16. For our prediction, we are betting on a draw.
Top facts and statistics for the match
- Atalanta have lost just 1 of their last 20 games: 12-7-1.
- Goal / Goal & Over 3.5 have been in the last 5 home games of Atalanta.
- Atalanta averaged 2.67 goals per game in the Champions League.
- Real Madrid is in a winning streak of 4 matches.
- Real Madrid have not won in their last 8 away games: 5-3-0.
- Real averages 1.5 goals in the Champions League.
- History! This is the first time that Atalanta and Real Madrid will meet in the Champions League.
- In their respective leagues, Atalanta won their home duel against Naples in Italian Serie A and Real Madrid went on to win against Real Valladolid in Spanish La Liga.
- Real Madrid's top scorer since the start of the season, Karim Benzema is uncertain whether he will play against Atalanta.
- Real Madrid have only won one away game in their last 4 trips to the Champions League.
- Atalanta Bergamo remains on 3 home games without a win in C1 (2 draws and 1 defeat).
Last 5 Atalanta matches:
Last 5 Real Madrid matches:
|02/20/21||LL||Valladolid||Real M||0: 1||P|
|02/14/21||LL||Real M||Valencia||2: 0||P|
|02/09/21||LL||Real M||Getafe||2: 0||P|
|02/06/21||LL||Huesca||Real M||1: 2||P|
|01/30/21||LL||Real M||Levante||1: 2||З|