Ajax is a very strong host!
The Ajax team is traditionally the absolute dominant in the Eredivisie. It is unlikely that they will miss the title this season as well.
They are on the 1st position with 11 points ahead of the second in the ranking.
The team is especially successful in their households. In their last 11 games at home they have 10 wins and 1 draw.
They also recorded 4 victories in the two elimination rounds of the Europa League. Young Boys and Lil were removed.
Roma lags behind the Top 4 in Italy!
Unlike their rival, Roma have a still unclear status in Serie A.
As they are currently in 7th position and 7 points away from 4th in the standings.
In the elimination phase of the Europa League, they also achieved a total of 4 victories over Braga and Shakhtar Donetsk.
Ajax vs. Roma: a comparison
The historical information about the direct meetings between these two teams is scarce.
But it has no value. Because it is over 15 years old.
In terms of games, it is also difficult to make any comparisons. Because Ajax are leaders, but in a far weaker championship.
Whether their opponents in the elimination phase of the Europa League were heavier is also a bit debatable.
Because I'm not convinced if Lille's focus was entirely on LE after being the main contender for the title in France.
And Young Boys are not above Braga and even above Shakhtar Donetsk.
If we compare the last matches of the two teams from their domestic championships, there is parity here as well.
Heerenveen totally tortured Ajax and even led them to the result. And the turnaround came from late goals.
Roma also made a weak match according to xG data against Sassuolo.
And although they took the lead twice, in the end they got lucky at least 2-2.
News about the lineups
Let's look now at the personnel situation in both teams.
Ajax will again miss the punished main goalkeeper Andre Onana. And his deputy, Martin Stekelenburg, is injured.
Delay Blind and Nusar Mazraoui are also expected to miss the match.
With Roma, it can be said that the situation is even worse.
Mkhitaryan and Chris Smalling are more important than the injured. And Rick Karsdorp is punished.
On this element, my conclusion is the following.
Of the 5 players who are the backbone of their teams, one is missing. Blind for Ajax and Mkhitaryan for Roma.
But the big difference comes from the following situation.
The absence of Mkhitaryan, along with that of Karsdorp, will significantly weaken Roma's creativity.
Because they both made more than half of the assists.
Forecast for Ajax - Roma
The match itself will be led by attempts of both teams to dominate the opposing half with a large number of short passes.
As well as attempts to break through mainly through the center.
I was very impressed by the fact that Roma's strength is exactly where Ajax's main weaknesses are.
Strong game of counter-attacks, individual breakthroughs and creation of many goal positions.
With such a constellation, even with weakened creativity, I can't rule out at least a goal from the Wolves.
The bet365 website offers a bet for exactly one goal for Roma at an attractive odds - 2.50.
But the one for an odd number of hits for the guests is also good. And it covers more events.
I choose it then for my prognosis.
Top facts and statistics for the match
- Ajax have not lost in their last 24 games: 21-3-0.
- Ajax have not lost in their last 11 home games: 10-1-0.
- There are over 2.5 goals in the last 7 home games of Ajax.
- Roma have lost only 1 of their last 6 away games: 3-2-1.
Last 5 Ajax matches:
|03/21/21||ERE||Ajax||The Hague||5: 0||P|
|03/18/21||LE||Young Boys||Ajax||0: 2||P|
|03/11/21||LE||Ajax||Young Boys||3: 0||P|
Roma's last 5 games:
Last direct meetings: